Beijing 'seriously concerned' as Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen reportedly set to meet US House Speaker on transit stop
South China Morning Post
6 min read
Beijing has expressed grave concerns over Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's reported plans to meet the US House of Representatives speaker during a transit stop there, with Chinese observers warning of another cross-strait crisis.
This came as the Presidential Office in Taipei said on Wednesday that relevant departments were working on certain plans and transit arrangements, without elaborating further.
While the office did not name Tsai, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy confirmed on Tuesday that he would be meeting her in the US this year instead of Taiwan, according to Bloomberg.
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The senior Republican also emphasised that the meeting did not preclude a later visit to the self-governed island, Bloomberg said.
The Financial Times on Monday was the first to report on McCarthy's plans to see Tsai in his home state of California instead of Taiwan, citing caution from Taipei. It said the meeting was likely to take place in April.
The Chinese foreign ministry said it was "seriously concerned about the news".
"We have lodged solemn representations with the US side and asked them to clarify," ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said on Wednesday.
Beijing was firmly opposed to any form of official exchange between the United States and Taiwan, she said, adding: "No one should underestimate the strong determination of the Chinese government and people to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
"The real threat to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is the separatist forces of Taiwan independence."
Analysts in mainland China said Beijing was likely to take a series of retaliatory steps if the meeting went ahead. The response could involve military force, which one observer said might be "more severe" than seen after McCarthy's predecessor Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan last August despite Beijing repeatedly warning against it.
Li Fei, a researcher at Xiamen University's Taiwan Research Institute, said both McCarthy's planned trip to Taiwan and Tsai's possible meeting with Washington's No 3 official on US soil would be viewed by Beijing as a challenge to its "red line" on Taiwan.
"I don't think Beijing would see much difference between the two [arrangements] and [it] is almost certainly going to take forceful measures to retaliate if Tsai's trip goes ahead," he said.
Beijing sees Taiwan as a breakaway province and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve reunification. While the US, like most countries, does not regard self-governed Taiwan as an independent state, it is opposed to any move to take back the island by force.
Beijing suspended cross-strait talks after the independence-leaning government of Tsai came to power in 2016. Relations have worsened since then, with Taipei boosting military ties with the US.
Pending details about Tsai's stopover, Li said her US trip would be comparable to her predecessor Lee Tung-hui's visit in June 1995, which set off the third Taiwan Strait crisis after Beijing launched surface-to-surface missiles into the seas around the island in the following months.
"China reacted strongly after Pelosi's visit last year and I think we will adopt harsher measures than before to punish Tsai's government and the US, in a bid to prevent similar provocations from happening again," he said.
"Military drills is an option that cannot be ruled out."
Pelosi's Taiwan visit and Beijing's angry military and diplomatic response to it - including an effective blockade of the island with unprecedented live-fire drills - plunged US-China ties to a historical low and sparked fears of an armed conflict between the rival powers.
In a bid to avoid incurring Beijing's wrath, Tsai reportedly persuaded McCarthy to change his plans about a Taiwan visit and meet her in the US instead, according to the Financial Times.
Sun Yun, a senior fellow at Washington's Stimson Centre, said it would be "obviously less provocative" for Beijing if McCarthy and Tsai were to meet in the US rather than Taiwan.
"But I don't think Beijing will see it as a friendly gesture, because he is still meeting her," she said.
While it is routine for Taiwanese presidents to transit through the US - barring the capital - en route to other destinations, a meeting with Tsai would make McCarthy the highest ranking US official to meet a sitting Taiwanese leader on American soil.
However, Sun said it was unlikely that Beijing would overreact, as it did not react to her previous US transits with military drills.
Wang Kung-yi, head of the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society, a Taipei think tank, said choosing to meet on US soil was a smart move.
"It would not only water down the significance of the occasion, but also minimise the impact on the complicated relationship between the US, Taiwan and Beijing," he said.
Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy is Washington's No 3 official. Photo: Reuters alt=Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy is Washington's No 3 official. Photo: Reuters>
Sovereignty is the core issue in such visits, Wang said, as Beijing tends to see Taiwan visits by high-level US officials as a violation.
"If McCarthy refuses to heed repeated warnings from Beijing by meeting Tsai in Taipei, the PLA [People's Liberation Army] is expected to further intensify its military operations around Taiwan in retaliation. This could trigger an unintended conflict in the Taiwan Strait."
But a meeting in the US would not stoke the flames, Wang said.
"As long as Tsai is not meeting McCarthy in Washington, or delivering a speech in Congress in line with the existing protocol, Beijing is likely to just send out a routine warning rather than punish Taiwan with high-intensity war games."
He also noted that it had long been Beijing's practice to tolerate having Taiwanese leaders visit Latin American or African allies by way of the US. During her last trip to visit four Caribbean allies in 2019, Tsai stopped over in New York where she had a teleconference with then speaker Pelosi.
Zhu Feng, a professor of international affairs at Nanjing University, however struck a more wary note. He said even a meeting on American soil might have a grave impact on the deeply fraught US-China ties, including another possible Taiwan Strait crisis.
Citing the independence-leaning Lee's 1995 visit, a private but highly publicised trip, Zhu said Tsai's planned US stopover, if not handled carefully, could fuel cross-strait tensions again, as Beijing had become increasingly impatient with Washington's warm ties with Taipei.
Taiwan was the "first red line" that must not be crossed in Sino-US relations, new Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang said on Tuesday, warning of "catastrophic consequences" if the US continued with its campaign of "containment and suppression" against Beijing.
