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What’s Behind Trump’s De Minimis Reversal, And Is Shein In the Clear?
Kate Nishimura
6 min read
It’s been 11 days since President Donald Trump hit pause on an executive order suspending de minimis treatment for shipments originating in China. And while the move has given shippers, enforcement agencies and e-commerce operators a moment to reflect, the respite is likely a brief one.
According to newly released data from Customs and Border Protection (CBP), the volume and value of de minimis shipments continues to rise. In fiscal 2025 alone, CBP has processed 443 million packages worth $9.2 billion, the agency’s Bills of Lading (BOL) insights showed. Those numbers already surpass the average quarterly value and volume of products brought in using the trade exception in 2024, which was a record-setting year for de minimis trade.
With those ballooning figures as a backdrop, Josh Teitelbaum, senior counsel for international trade policy at Washington, D.C. law firm Akin-Gump, said carrying out the president’s executive order would have created a mountain of issues—a literal package pileup—and that’s likely why he walked it back.
“The fact that they chose formal entry for all of those goods meant an overwhelming resource burden on the agencies that they were simply not able to administer, and that would have had consequences for non-de minimis shipments,” he explained. “We would have seen significant backup across a variety of different channels for goods trying to make their way into the United States.”
According to CBP’s BOL data, the vast majority of de minimis shipments that made their way into the U.S. during the first quarter arrived via air (about 376 million), followed by trucks (62 million) and ocean vessels (4.7 million). Meanwhile, express shippers have accounted for 65.6 million de minimis shipments, while postal was responsible for 21.1 shipments.
Teitelbaum said it’s notable that Trump has charged incoming Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick with “determining whether or not we have a system in place to handle that kind of administrative task,” because the department doesn’t oversee the agencies, like the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) and CBP, that will be responsible for processing the shipments.
“It was an interesting choice from the White House to make Commerce in charge of that, and perhaps another illustration of just how popular the low-value shipments have become in a modern e-commerce world,” he said.
Teitelbaum also suspects that appointees like Lutnick and Jamieson Greer, Trump’s not-yet-confirmed choice for U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), may be acting as “moderating forces” and a foil to “advisors with more hawkish tendencies” when it comes to China.
The president’s animus for China, displayed so openly during his first term, has cooled notably during his second.
“He is certainly pushing harder on non-China areas—that’s very clear,” Teitelbaum said, pointing to the heated exchanges with leaders from Mexico and Canada, as well as Trump’s stated concerns about European automobiles, which will be explored during Lutnick’s reciprocal tariffs probe.
“In general, [his] trade policy does not appear to be geared at simply decoupling from China. But on this specific reversal of de minimis, I don’t think it’s related necessarily to the overall posture towards China; I think it has more to do with just the simple practicalities of being able to handle the incoming imports at CBP and the Postal Service.”
Trump’s evolving approach to China trade may also be informed by a need to engage the country on geopolitical objectives like ending the war in Ukraine. “There are a host of factors that kind of that could play into Trump’s thinking on this.”
However, Teitelbaum believes it’s unlikely that the de minimis restrictions on Chinese shipments will fade as an administration objective, despite the short-term deferral. “The Secretary of Commerce is responsible for returning to the President with an answer on making this happen. There are lots of people who are influential with this administration who are interested in seeing it happen.”
“I think Congress is also interested in legislating on this because narrowing de minimis does raise revenue on Capitol Hill, and there is bipartisan support in trying to reform de miminis,” he added. “So I don’t think it’s going away.”
But with all the back-and-forth on other trade issues (executive orders for 25-percent duties on Canada and Mexico swiftly deferred, threats of reciprocal tariffs on EU trade partners), it’s reasonable to question which of the president’s stated edicts “have staying power,” Teitelbaum said.
Also grappling with the proposed changes to de minimis (and their nebulous nature) is a company that’s built a business on the trade provision.
Shein executive chairman Donald Tang on Monday sent a letter to investors insisting that the company’s “growth remains strong” in the face of possible changes to the law, which is almost unilaterally responsible for propelling its astronomical growth in the U.S. market. It’s estimated that 60 percent of all de minimis shipments originate in China, amounting to more than $2 million each day—and many are small shipments of low-value apparel.
“As I am writing this note to you, despite the recent challenges, our growth remains strong, driven by our ability to offer a diverse selection of fashion and lifestyle products at consistently affordable prices,” Tang wrote in a letter viewed by Reuters.
As the fast-fashion e-commerce firm gears up for Trump’s executive order to take effect following the temporary deferral, it’s investing in “supply chain advancements to boost efficiency and responsiveness,” Tang wrote—along with stepped up logistics capabilities “to ensure faster, more reliable deliveries.”
The letter, which was sent to Shein’s investors—a group that includes Sequoia Capital, General Atlantic, Declaration Partners, Brookfield and Claure Group—did not address rumblings that the firm plans to slash its valuation to $50 billion and push its London IPO to the second half of 2025.
Shein’s U.S. initial public offering has been all but stymied by calls from Congress and industry groups to investigate its alleged supply chain abuses and ties to China’s Communist government. Now that de minimis appears to be on its way out and its business model disrupted, its investment attractiveness has likely taken another major hit.
Notably, though, Tang reiterated in his letter a sentiment he first shared two years ago—namely, that he’s in favor of sensible de minimis reform. “I have long advocated for de minimis reform that prioritizes American consumers—because at SHEIN, our focus is on customers, not customs policy,” he wrote Monday.
In open correspondence to American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA) president and CEO Steve Lamar in July 2023, Tang wrote that “SHEIN believes the de minimis framework should be reformed to create a more level, transparent playing field—one where all retailers play by the same rules, and where the rules are applied evenly and equally, regardless of where a company is based or ships from.”
“This would create an environment that allows companies to compete on the quality and authenticity of their product, the caliber of their business models, and the performance of their customer service, which has always been at the heart of American enterprise,” he added.
