Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) Stock Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Look Uncertain: What Lies Ahead ?

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editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 4:51 PM 4 min read

Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 23% over the last three months. However, we decided to pay attention to the company's fundamentals which don't appear to give a clear sign about the company's financial health. In this article, we decided to focus on Bega Cheese's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

See our latest analysis for Bega Cheese

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Bega Cheese is:

3.0% = AU$31m ÷ AU$1.0b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. Another way to think of that is that for every A$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn A$0.03 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of Bega Cheese's Earnings Growth And 3.0% ROE

It is quite clear that Bega Cheese's ROE is rather low. Even when compared to the industry average of 8.0%, the ROE figure is pretty disappointing. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 51% seen by Bega Cheese was possibly a result of it having a lower ROE. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For example, the business has allocated capital poorly, or that the company has a very high payout ratio.

So, as a next step, we compared Bega Cheese's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 3.3% over the last few years.

past-earnings-growth — ASX:BGA Past Earnings Growth October 12th 2024

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. What is BGA worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether BGA is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Bega Cheese Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

In spite of a normal three-year median payout ratio of 36% (that is, a retention ratio of 64%), the fact that Bega Cheese's earnings have shrunk is quite puzzling. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Moreover, Bega Cheese has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to rise to 56% over the next three years. Still, forecasts suggest that Bega Cheese's future ROE will rise to 7.6% even though the the company's payout ratio is expected to rise. We presume that there could some other characteristics of the business that could be driving the anticipated growth in the company's ROE.

Conclusion

Overall, we have mixed feelings about Bega Cheese. While the company does have a high rate of reinvestment, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping any benefit to its investors, and moreover, its having a negative impact on the earnings growth. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.