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One thing we could say about the analysts on Assembly Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASMB) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.
Following the downgrade, the current consensus from Assembly Biosciences' two analysts is for revenues of US$33m in 2025 which - if met - would reflect a meaningful 17% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$7.65 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$38m and losses of US$6.95 per share in 2025. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.
See our latest analysis for Assembly Biosciences
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Assembly Biosciences is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 13% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 34% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 21% annually for the foreseeable future. So although Assembly Biosciences' revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Assembly Biosciences' revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Given the serious cut to next year's outlook, it's clear that analysts have turned more bearish on Assembly Biosciences, and we wouldn't blame shareholders for feeling a little more cautious themselves.
As you can see, the analysts clearly aren't bullish, and there might be good reason for that. We've identified some potential issues with Assembly Biosciences' financials, such as dilutive stock issuance over the past year. Learn more, and discover the 3 other risks we've identified, for free on our platform here.