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One of the biggest stories of last week was how Basic-Fit N.V. (AMS:BFIT) shares plunged 23% in the week since its latest yearly results, closing yesterday at €17.80. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of €1.2b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 77% to hit €0.12 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
View our latest analysis for Basic-Fit
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Basic-Fit's eight analysts is for revenues of €1.41b in 2025. This would reflect a decent 16% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 855% to €1.16. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €1.42b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.31 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.
The consensus price target held steady at €29.99, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Basic-Fit, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €36.00 and the most bearish at €24.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Basic-Fit's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 16% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 27% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.9% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Basic-Fit is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.