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By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the Barrett Business Services, Inc. (NASDAQ:BBSI) share price is up 76% in the last three years, clearly besting the market return of around 11% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 50%, including dividends.
Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
See our latest analysis for Barrett Business Services
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Barrett Business Services was able to grow its EPS at 14% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. In comparison, the 21% per year gain in the share price outpaces the EPS growth. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did three years ago. That's not necessarily surprising considering the three-year track record of earnings growth.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We know that Barrett Business Services has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Barrett Business Services' TSR for the last 3 years was 83%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that Barrett Business Services shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 50% over one year. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 11%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Barrett Business Services has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.