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We came across a bullish thesis on Barnes & Noble Education, Inc. (BNED) on Substack by Catapult Capital. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BNED. Barnes & Noble Education, Inc. (BNED)'s share was trading at $9.73 as of March 17th.
An aerial view of a well-stocked bookstore, with customers browsing inside.
Barnes & Noble Education (BNED) is the independent university bookstore division of Barnes & Noble, spun off in 2015. Initially seen as a more stable business compared to mainstream retail, BNED operates 1,164 bookstores across the U.S., with 649 physical and 515 virtual locations. The company primarily sells branded merchandise and textbooks and has historically faced headwinds from e-commerce competition, digitalization, and piracy. The textbook retail market has shifted toward an oligopoly, with BNED controlling about 30%, its main competitor Follett also holding 30%, and the remaining share split between self-managed stores and smaller operators. Over time, self-managed bookstores have ceded share to BNED and Follett, consolidating the industry further.
Despite expectations of resilience, BNED’s performance post-IPO has been disastrous. Amazon and other e-commerce players have aggressively encroached on BNED’s core textbook sales, while digitalization has enabled publishers to sell directly to students, bypassing bookstores. Rampant piracy has further eroded the market, impacting both BNED and textbook publishers. However, salvation has come in the form of "Equitable Access" (EA) programs, designed to address affordability concerns for lower-income students. These programs shift textbook purchasing to an opt-out model, bundling textbook fees with tuition and dramatically increasing sell-through rates—from roughly 35% under the old model to nearly 80% at campuses adopting EA. Universities benefit from higher textbook sales, students receive materials at a discount, and publishers see stronger profitability despite offering price reductions. This shift mirrors the transition of the music industry to subscription-based streaming, where higher volume offsets lower per-unit revenue.
BNED launched its own EA programs—First Day (FD) and First Day Complete (FDC)—in 2021. The rollout has been highly successful, with 16.4% of its covered campuses now enrolled in FDC. While overall revenue has remained stable due to the cannibalization of traditional textbook sales and store closures, margins have surged, transforming BNED’s financial outlook. The company has shifted from breakeven EBITDA in FY23 to posting 4.7% trailing-12-month EBITDA margins, a testament to the program’s impact. At this point, the key question is not whether FDC will succeed, but how much market penetration BNED can achieve—20%, 30%, or even 70%?