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It's shaping up to be a tough period for B&G Foods, Inc. (NYSE:BGS), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$425m revenue coming in 7.4% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.01 missed the mark badly, arriving some 94% below what was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
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Following last week's earnings report, B&G Foods' four analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$1.86b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with B&G Foods forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.66 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.91b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.38 in 2025. Although the analysts have lowered their revenue forecasts, they've also made a very substantial lift in their earnings per share estimates, which implies there's been something of an uptick in sentiment following the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for B&G Foods
The consensus price target fell 25% to US$5.50, with the analysts signalling that the weaker revenue outlook was a more powerful indicator than the upgraded EPS forecasts. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic B&G Foods analyst has a price target of US$7.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$4.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.3% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 1.2% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.4% per year. It's pretty clear that B&G Foods' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.