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These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But investors can boost returns by picking market-beating companies to own shares in. To wit, the Aviva plc (LON:AV.) share price is 47% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 22% (not including dividends) in the same period. So that should have shareholders smiling. Unfortunately the longer term returns are not so good, with the stock falling 22% in the last three years.
View our latest analysis for Aviva
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the last year, Aviva actually saw its earnings per share drop 23%.
So we don't think that investors are paying too much attention to EPS. Indeed, when EPS is declining but the share price is up, it often means the market is considering other factors.
Absent any improvement, we don't think a thirst for dividends is pushing up the Aviva's share price. Revenue actually dropped 6.9% over last year. Usually that correlates with a lower share price, but let's face it, the gyrations of the market are sometimes only as clear as mud.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. If you are thinking of buying or selling Aviva stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Aviva the TSR over the last year was 58%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!