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Shareholders of AVITA Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ:RCEL) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 16% to US$11.95 following its latest quarterly results. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$20m, statutory losses exploded to US$0.64 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
See our latest analysis for AVITA Medical
After the latest results, the nine analysts covering AVITA Medical are now predicting revenues of US$105.2m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a substantial 75% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 55% to US$0.99. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$101.2m and US$0.96 per share in losses. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although there was a nice uplift to revenue, the consensus also made a modest increase to its losses per share forecasts.
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$15.33, with growing revenues seemingly enough to offset the concern of growing losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AVITA Medical at US$21.02 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$11.84. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that AVITA Medical's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 57% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 30% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 21% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that AVITA Medical is expected to grow much faster than its industry.