By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you choose individual stocks with prowess, you can make superior returns. Just take a look at Avarga Limited (SGX:U09), which is up 29%, over three years, soundly beating the market decline of 17% (not including dividends).
The past week has proven to be lucrative for Avarga investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's three-year performance.
See our latest analysis for Avarga
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During three years of share price growth, Avarga achieved compound earnings per share growth of 18% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 9% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat. We'd venture the lowish P/E ratio of 4.47 also reflects the negative sentiment around the stock.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Avarga's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We've already covered Avarga's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Dividends have been really beneficial for Avarga shareholders, and that cash payout contributed to why its TSR of 45%, over the last 3 years, is better than the share price return.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 3.2% in the twelve months, Avarga shareholders did even worse, losing 24%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 4%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Avarga you should be aware of.