By Ben Klayman
DETROIT, Jan 10 (Reuters) - With automakers' demand for aluminum growing explosively as they seek to improve fuel efficiency, aluminum providers are selling out their automotive capacity almost as fast as they can build new plants, raising the question of whether some car makers could be caught short in the future.
The U.S. market for aluminum sheet is expected to be up fivefold this year from 2012 with the development of vehicles like Ford Motor Co's next generation F-150 full-size pickup truck, a more aluminum intensive model that will be shown Monday at the Detroit auto show.
Demand is expected to continue its surge as automakers look to slash vehicle weights to boost fuel efficiency, industry executives and analysts said.
"The one thing that has proven itself to be accurate is that any forward forecast of the use of aluminum in automotive will change upward," Phil Martens, chief executive of aluminum provider Novelis Inc, said in a telephone interview.
The U.S. market for aluminum sheet, which stood at less than 200 million pounds in 2012, is expected to hit 1 billion pounds this year, and then double from there by 2020 and reach 3.2 billion to 6.4 billion pounds by 2025, according to independent industry analyst Lloyd O'Carroll.
Other vehicles using a lot of aluminum include Land Rover's Range Rover SUV, Volkswagen's Audi A8 sedan, Daimler's Mercedes Benz CLA sedan, General Motors Co's Chevrolet Corvette sports car and Tesla Motors Inc's Model S electric sedan.
Novelis, along with Alcoa Inc, dominates the U.S. aluminum market, a trend that should continue for the time being as both companies pour hundreds of millions of dollars into expanding capacity to meet demand.
Analysts and industry officials said growth in the United States is exponential because consumers' preference for bigger engines and larger vehicles at a time of rising fuel economy requirements and lower emission standards has forced automakers to push for greater weight reductions in their vehicle designs than they can get from high-strength steel alone.
"If you really want to save a lot of weight, like on a pickup truck, you really have to go with something lighter than steel to take 700 pounds out," said Dick Schultz, managing director of the auto practice at research firm Ducker Worldwide.
U.S. government standards mandate that by 2025, automakers must increase corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) to 54.5 miles per gallon, up from 35.5 mpg by 2016.
The key question is whether the industry can keep up with demand, industry officials and analysts said. If not, some automotive customers could be caught short, lacking sufficient aluminum for their next-generation of lighter-weight cars and trucks.