Autohome Inc. (NYSE:ATHM) Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Appear To Be Mixed : Is There A Clear Direction For The Stock?

editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Sun, Feb 16, 2025, 6:54 AM 4 min read

Autohome (NYSE:ATHM) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 9.7% over the last week. However, we wonder if the company's inconsistent financials would have any adverse impact on the current share price momentum. In this article, we decided to focus on Autohome's ROE.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

Check out our latest analysis for Autohome

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Autohome is:

6.7% = CN¥1.8b ÷ CN¥26b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.07 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Autohome's Earnings Growth And 6.7% ROE

On the face of it, Autohome's ROE is not much to talk about. Yet, a closer study shows that the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 7.6%. Having said that, Autohome's five year net income decline rate was 16%. Remember, the company's ROE is a bit low to begin with. Hence, this goes some way in explaining the shrinking earnings.

However, when we compared Autohome's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 16% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

past-earnings-growth — NYSE:ATHM Past Earnings Growth February 16th 2025

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is ATHM fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Autohome Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Despite having a normal three-year median payout ratio of 27% (where it is retaining 73% of its profits), Autohome has seen a decline in earnings as we saw above. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Moreover, Autohome has been paying dividends for five years, which is a considerable amount of time, suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer consistent dividends even though earnings have been shrinking. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to rise to 76% over the next three years. Regardless, the ROE is not expected to change much for the company despite the higher expected payout ratio.

Summary

Overall, we have mixed feelings about Autohome. While the company does have a high rate of reinvestment, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping any benefit to its investors, and moreover, its having a negative impact on the earnings growth. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.