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It hasn't been the best quarter for Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 24% in that time. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been very strong. It's fair to say most would be happy with 103% the gain in that time. So while it's never fun to see a share price fall, it's important to look at a longer time horizon. Ultimately business performance will determine whether the stock price continues the positive long term trend. Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for the long term, so spare a thought for those caught in the 35% decline over the last twelve months.
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
View our latest analysis for Autodesk
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the five years of share price growth, Autodesk moved from a loss to profitability. Sometimes, the start of profitability is a major inflection point that can signal fast earnings growth to come, which in turn justifies very strong share price gains.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It is of course excellent to see how Autodesk has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 7.6% in the twelve months, Autodesk shareholders did even worse, losing 35%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 15% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Autodesk has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.