Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Australian Clinical Labs Limited (ASX:ACL) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF (A$, Millions)
AU$35.2m
AU$45.2m
AU$48.3m
AU$49.0m
AU$50.5m
AU$44.0m
AU$43.6m
AU$43.6m
AU$43.8m
AU$44.3m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x4
Analyst x4
Analyst x4
Analyst x2
Analyst x2
Analyst x2
Est @ -1.00%
Est @ -0.02%
Est @ 0.66%
Est @ 1.14%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 6.3%
AU$33.1
AU$40.0
AU$40.2
AU$38.4
AU$37.2
AU$30.5
AU$28.4
AU$26.7
AU$25.3
AU$24.1
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$324m
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.3%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$1.1b÷ ( 1 + 6.3%)10= AU$608m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$932m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU$2.5, the company appears quite good value at a 46% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
ASX:ACL Discounted Cash Flow July 1st 2024
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Australian Clinical Labs as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.880. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Australian Clinical Labs
Strength
Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Healthcare market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market.
Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
Dividends are not covered by earnings.
Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the Australian market.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Australian Clinical Labs, there are three further aspects you should look at:
Future Earnings: How does ACL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
