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Last week, you might have seen that Aurizon Holdings Limited (ASX:AZJ) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.1% to AU$3.37 in the past week. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at AU$3.8b, although statutory earnings per share came in 11% below what the analysts expected, at AU$0.22 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Aurizon Holdings
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Aurizon Holdings' 16 analysts is for revenues of AU$4.06b in 2025. This would reflect a credible 5.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 11% to AU$0.24. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$4.08b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.28 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 7.2% to AU$3.70, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aurizon Holdings at AU$4.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at AU$3.25. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Aurizon Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 5.6% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 5.4% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that Aurizon Holdings is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.