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For many, the main point of investing is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Aurizon Holdings Limited (ASX:AZJ), since the last five years saw the share price fall 42%.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
Check out our latest analysis for Aurizon Holdings
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Looking back five years, both Aurizon Holdings' share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 1.3% per year. This reduction in EPS is less than the 10% annual reduction in the share price. This implies that the market was previously too optimistic about the stock.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We know that Aurizon Holdings has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Aurizon Holdings, it has a TSR of -24% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Aurizon Holdings shareholders are up 2.7% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. But at least that's still a gain! Over five years the TSR has been a reduction of 4% per year, over five years. It could well be that the business is stabilizing. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Aurizon Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Aurizon Holdings (1 shouldn't be ignored) that you should be aware of.