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Talking Points:

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat

• Aussie Dollar breaks above trend line resistance in play since December

• Looking for selling opportunity after near-term corrective upswing fizzles

The Australian Dollar edged above trend line resistance capping the upside against its US counterpart since early December, hinting at continued gains ahead. The long-term AUD/USD trend continues to firmly favor the downside however, painting near-term gains as corrective.

Near-term resistance is at 0.7230, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis clearing the way for a challenge of the 76.4% level at 0.7291. Alternatively, a reversal below the 50% Fib at 0.7181 – a move that would likewise break back below trend line resistance-turned-support – opens the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 0.7132.

We continue to wait for an opportunity to enter short AUD/USD in line with our2016 fundamental outlook. Within that framework, further near-term gains are welcome in that they will a more attractive selling opportunity once the correction is exhausted. In the meantime, we remain flat.

What does FXCM traders’ positioning tell about AUD/USD direction? Find out here!

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