AUD/USD Price Forecast – The Australian Dollar Recovers the Kickoff the Week

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Christopher Lewis

Mon, Jul 4, 2022, 5:42 AM 2 min read

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has bounced a bit during the trading session on Monday, to reach above the 0.6850 level. In fact, as I record this video, we are even threatening the 0.69 level. This is a nice bounce, but should also be noted that it is from an extremely low level. The Australian dollar being so highly levered to commodities can be a bit of a mixed bag, so you should keep that in the back of your mind as well.

If we do recover, it’s not until we break above the 0.7250 level that I would consider the trend changing. The Australian dollar will continue to struggle due to the trouble that we see in the copper, iron, and other hard mineral markets. China also has a major influence on what happens next, as they are by far Australia’s biggest customer. China has been a bit of a mixed bag of late, but they are starting to stimulate their economy, so that may drive up the value of the Aussie eventually.

Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy, and are much more aggressive than most other central banks around the world. In this environment, the US dollar will continue to strengthen, and therefore I think that the gains in the Australian dollar are probably going to be somewhat muted, but at the end of the day it’s price that dictates what we do, so therefore keep that in mind. I do believe that the 0.70 level will be difficult to get a bone, so therefore I am looking for signs of exhaustion to start shorting again.