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It's been a good week for Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. (NYSE:ATMU) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 9.0% to US$42.37. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$404m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Atmus Filtration Technologies surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.52 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
See our latest analysis for Atmus Filtration Technologies
Following the latest results, Atmus Filtration Technologies' seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.72b in 2025. This would be a reasonable 3.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 15% to US$2.49. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.72b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.46 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 8.8% to US$45.86. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Atmus Filtration Technologies analyst has a price target of US$51.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$39.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Atmus Filtration Technologies is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Atmus Filtration Technologies' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.4% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.1% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Atmus Filtration Technologies is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.