Are Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s (NYSE:ASPN) Mixed Financials The Reason For Its Gloomy Performance on The Stock Market?

editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Fri, Feb 14, 2025, 4:06 AM 4 min read

Aspen Aerogels (NYSE:ASPN) has had a rough three months with its share price down 37%. We, however decided to study the company's financials to determine if they have got anything to do with the price decline. Fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes so it makes sense to study the company's financials. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Aspen Aerogels' ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for Aspen Aerogels

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Aspen Aerogels is:

2.2% = US$13m ÷ US$615m (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.02 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of Aspen Aerogels' Earnings Growth And 2.2% ROE

It is quite clear that Aspen Aerogels' ROE is rather low. Not just that, even compared to the industry average of 10%, the company's ROE is entirely unremarkable. For this reason, Aspen Aerogels' five year net income decline of 5.0% is not surprising given its lower ROE. We believe that there also might be other aspects that are negatively influencing the company's earnings prospects. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

However, when we compared Aspen Aerogels' growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 10% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

past-earnings-growth — NYSE:ASPN Past Earnings Growth February 14th 2025

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is Aspen Aerogels fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Aspen Aerogels Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Aspen Aerogels doesn't pay any regular dividends, meaning that the company is keeping all of its profits, which makes us wonder why it is retaining its earnings if it can't use them to grow its business. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Conclusion

On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Aspen Aerogels can be open to many interpretations. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.