In This Article:
ASML Holding N.V. (AMS:ASML) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.3% to €564 in the week after its latest quarterly results. ASML Holding reported €7.7b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of €6.00 beat expectations, being 3.5% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from ASML Holding's 36 analysts is for revenues of €32.2b in 2025. This reflects an okay 4.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 5.6% to €23.37. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €32.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of €23.88 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
View our latest analysis for ASML Holding
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 5.9% to €779, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on ASML Holding, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €970 and the most bearish at €500 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that ASML Holding's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than ASML Holding.