Thailand's benchmark stock index has outperformed most of Southeast Asia since the start of 2015, but analysts are divided on whether the market remains attractive.
The SET (The Stock Exchange of Thailand: .SETI) index rose over 6 percent in the first four weeks of the year, following a 15.3 percent surge in 2014. That leaves it ahead of a 5.2 percent gain in the Philippines, and a rise of nearly 2 percent in Southeast Asian peers Singapore and Malaysia, and a 0.5 percent rise in Indonesia's Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite (Jakarta Stock Exchange: .JKSE) index. Only Vietnamese shares managed to outrun Thailand, with a near 7 percent jump.
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Positive support
Hopes that a 60 percent fall in crude oil prices could be a boon for Thailand have been driving the local bourse, which was trading near the key 1,600 level on Friday.
"Oil prices at $50 a barrel will put about one month's extra salary into consumer's pockets," Jalil Rasheed, investment director at Invesco, said. "With Thailand being a net oil importer, we are buying into the recovery."
Emerging markets guru Mark Mobius is also optimistic. Earlier this month, the executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, told CNBC that the outlook for Thailand looks "very positive."
"Lower oil prices lessen inflation and enable the central bank to loosen up. Besides, the current administration is under pressure to boost the economy to make sure that people, on a political level, are happy," he said.
Headed by army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha, Thailand's military seized power in a coup after nearly six months of political protests and two days of martial law last May. Since then, $3.8 billion worth of investment plans aimed at upgrading public infrastructure have been approved, along with an acceleration of project approvals by the Board of Investment to promote private investment.
All together, these factors could see the local bourse hit 1,810 points by the end of 2015, CLSA analysts wrote in a note.
"Thailand is undergoing reforms in politics, as well as energy and telecoms policies, promoting private investment and infrastructure spending. As the restructuring gains momentum this year, we expect the market to continue rerating as companies reap from investment-led growth, energy and digital [communications] reforms," said Suchart Techaposai, head of Thai research at CLSA, which has a "buy" call on state-owned oil and gas company PTT (The Stock Exchange of Thailand: PTT-TH), Siam Cement (The Stock Exchange of Thailand: SCC-TH) and communication conglomerate True (The Stock Exchange of Thailand: TRUE-TH).