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Artificial Intelligence (AI) Investors Keep Watching Tesla for Robotaxis. But Billionaire Bill Ackman May Have Just Identified An Even Bigger Opportunity
For the last few years, Tesla(NASDAQ: TSLA) CEO Elon Musk has spoken repeatedly about his vision to turn his electric vehicle (EV) company into a full-blown artificial intelligence (AI) operation. One of the primary ways AI is expected to revolutionize Tesla's business is through autonomous driving.
Musk doesn't just want to integrate self-driving technology into Tesla cars for consumers to enjoy, though. Rather, he is looking to create a fleet of autonomous Tesla cars that people can hail at virtually any time. This initiative is known as the Robotaxi, and it's become one of the biggest sources of excitement for Tesla bulls ever since Musk gave the public a sneak peek late last year.
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While the idea of Robotaxi has certainly garnered a lot of attention, Tesla is not the only major technology company exploring the prospects of AI in the automobile market. In the piece below, I'm going to explore why I think some of the moves billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman has been making as of late could spell trouble for Tesla and its autonomous vehicle vision.
Did Ackman just beat Tesla at its own game? Read on to find out more.
Step 1: Alphabet is rivaling Tesla in the autonomous vehicle market
Ackman is the CEO of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management. Unlike other hedge fund managers, one of Ackman's notable attributes is that he tends to keep Pershing Square's portfolio limited to a small number of stocks, generally owning positions in 10 or so companies at a time.
Since AI burst onto the scene as the market's hottest trend a couple of years ago, one mega-cap tech stock that's been relatively polarizing is Alphabet(NASDAQ: GOOGL). Some skeptics argue that Alphabet's dominance in internet search via Google could be threatened by the rise of ChatGPT and other large language models (LLMs). In addition, Meta Platforms and Amazon are becoming increasingly popular areas for advertisers to invest their budget over the likes of Alphabet-owned properties Google and YouTube.
Nevertheless, Ackman took a liking to Alphabet and began building a position in the company a couple of years ago. The obvious thesis around Alphabet as an AI play is that the company has the ability to integrate new services across its ecosystem -- from advertising, cloud computing, cybersecurity, workplace productivity, internet search, and more.
However, one area that receives virtually no attention pertaining to Alphabet's AI ambitions is autonomous driving.
Over the last several years, Alphabet has quietly built an impressive autonomous vehicle operation of its own called Waymo. Today, Waymo taxis are already serving customers in major metropolitan areas, including Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin.
Image source: Getty Images.
Step 2: Robotaxis could revolutionize Uber's business
Earlier this year, Ackman took to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) in which he revealed that Pershing Square took a position in ride-hailing leader Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER). Similar to Alphabet, Pershing Square's investment thesis around Uber primarily revolved around the company's valuation relative to its growth profile. While the firm thinks Uber's global scale and diversified services operation provide the company with a unique ability to expand profit margins over the coming years, there is a more subtle tailwind that could accelerate its growth as well.
According to Pershing Square's annual investor presentation from February, autonomous vehicle developers may choose to partner with taxi operations, such as Uber, due to the company's existing base of 170 million customers worldwide. In other words, Uber's value proposition is that it already has an enormous, sticky base of consumers that autonomous vehicle businesses wouldn't need to try and acquire themselves. In addition, Pershing Square's stance is that as autonomous vehicle fleets scale and become more mainstream, this dynamic provides an opportunity for the entire rideshare market to expand as well.
You might wonder how autonomous vehicles could benefit Uber's business. Think about other service-oriented businesses that act as distributors. Airbnb doesn't build its own physical infrastructure, unlike hotels. Rather, it serves as a platform on which consumers can book a trip, and Airbnb makes money by brokering that transaction.
In the same way, Uber does not need to spend billions building its own fleet of autonomous vehicles. Rather, it can strike partnerships with other companies developing self-driving technology and simply serve as a distribution channel. This mitigates a lot of risk, as Uber stands to benefit from a number of different companies that may choose to leverage its platform for a robotaxi service. Meanwhile, if Tesla does not pull off its goals in autonomous driving or fails to scale its own fleet, the company will likely be in a tough position in terms of growth opportunities.
Step 3: Hertz could be the missing piece to Ackman's autonomous vehicle vision
Just a few days ago, Ackman took to X again to reveal Pershing Square's latest big move: building a position in car rental stock Hertz(NASDAQ: HTZ). Once again, Ackman provided a long list of detailed financial analyses in his post and made the case for why he thinks Hertz is trading for a great value.
However, there was a sentence in the last paragraph of the post that really caught my eye.
Ackman wrote, "What if Uber partnered with Hertz on an AV [autonomous vehicle] fleet rollout over time?"
Such an idea could make a ton of sense. By merging car rentals, ride-hailing, and autonomous vehicle technology, Hertz could transform into a robotaxi operation of its own. Instead of relying on foot traffic for its services at airports and other venues, Hertz could rent self-driving cars (perhaps from Waymo) on the Uber app. As a result, Hertz removes the variability of the middleman (human drivers) but still benefits from a consistent flow of renters via Uber's installed base. In turn, Hertz could unlock steadier revenue streams and improve its unit economics on its existing vehicle infrastructure.
Ackman could be triangulating an AI trade for the ages
Admittedly, the idea of a three-way partnership between Alphabet (Waymo), Uber, and Hertz might seem like a pipe dream. But remember, Ackman is an activist investor -- often working with a company's executive leadership to identify ways to improve profitability and scale the overall operation.
Given his public statements, I think it's reasonable to say that Pershing Square could see Alphabet, Uber, and Hertz as a cheaper way to invest at the intersection of AI and autonomous driving compared to Tesla and its lofty valuation.
But at a deeper level, I think Ackman could be in the early stages of triangulating an AI trade for the record books. Should Waymo, Uber, and Hertz go on to work together in the world of autonomous vehicle fleets, Ackman would be in a position to benefit from three different opportunities -- as opposed to betting the farm on just one player such as Tesla.
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Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Adam Spatacco has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Airbnb, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Tesla, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
