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The board of Arko Corp. (NASDAQ:ARKO) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.03 per share on the 21st of March. Based on this payment, the dividend yield on the company's stock will be 2.7%, which is an attractive boost to shareholder returns.
While the dividend yield is important for income investors, it is also important to consider any large share price moves, as this will generally outweigh any gains from distributions. Arko's stock price has reduced by 37% in the last 3 months, which is not ideal for investors and can explain a sharp increase in the dividend yield.
See our latest analysis for Arko
Arko's Projected Earnings Seem Likely To Cover Future Distributions
A big dividend yield for a few years doesn't mean much if it can't be sustained. Prior to this announcement, Arko's dividend made up quite a large proportion of earnings but only 13% of free cash flows. In general, cash flows are more important than earnings, so we are comfortable that the dividend will be sustainable going forward, especially with so much cash left over for reinvestment.
Earnings per share is forecast to rise by 9.7% over the next year. If the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate the payout ratio could reach 84%, which is on the higher side, but certainly still feasible.
Arko Is Still Building Its Track Record
The dividend hasn't seen any major cuts in the past, but the company has only been paying a dividend for 3 years, which isn't that long in the grand scheme of things. The dividend has gone from an annual total of $0.08 in 2022 to the most recent total annual payment of $0.12. This implies that the company grew its distributions at a yearly rate of about 14% over that duration. The dividend has been growing rapidly, however with such a short payment history we can't know for sure if payment can continue to grow over the long term, so caution may be warranted.
Dividend Growth Could Be Constrained
Some investors will be chomping at the bit to buy some of the company's stock based on its dividend history. We are encouraged to see that Arko has grown earnings per share at 33% per year over the past five years. Fast growing earnings are great, but this can rarely be sustained without some reinvestment into the business, which Arko hasn't been doing.
In Summary
Overall, it's nice to see a consistent dividend payment, but we think that longer term, the current level of payment might be unsustainable. The payments haven't been particularly stable and we don't see huge growth potential, but with the dividend well covered by cash flows it could prove to be reliable over the short term. We would be a touch cautious of relying on this stock primarily for the dividend income.