Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (NYSE:AMBP) last week reported its latest second-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$1.3b missing analyst predictions by 4.6%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.03 per share, a substantial decline on analyst expectations of a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
See our latest analysis for Ardagh Metal Packaging
Following the latest results, Ardagh Metal Packaging's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$4.81b in 2023. This would be a satisfactory 3.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to tumble 48% to US$0.04 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$4.86b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.14 in 2023. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.
The consensus price target held steady at US$4.84, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ardagh Metal Packaging at US$6.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$3.70. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Ardagh Metal Packaging shareholders.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Ardagh Metal Packaging's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 7.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2023 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.5% over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.8% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Ardagh Metal Packaging to grow faster than the wider industry.