We expect investors to focus on the launch plans of Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc.’s ARCT self-amplifying mRNA (sa-mRNA) COVID-19 vaccine, Kostaive (ARCT-154), and updates on the pipeline when it reports third-quarter 2024 results on Nov. 7, after market close.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $49.2 million.
Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Let's see how things might have shaped up for the quarter to be reported.
Factors to Note Ahead of ARCT's Q3 Earnings
Arcturus has developed the first sa-mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, Kostaive, in the world. The company has a collaboration agreement with renowned vaccine company CSL Seqirus for making innovative mRNA vaccines.
Arcturus’ top line currently comprises collaboration revenues from partners and grant revenues. Revenues in the last reported quarter rose significantly year over year due to an increase in revenues recognized from CSL related to Kostaive manufacturing activities and clinical study expenses. We expect a similar trend to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.
Kostaive first received approval in November 2023 as the first sa-mRNA COVID-19 vaccine for initial vaccination and booster for adults aged 18 years and older in Japan. The regulatory body in Japan also approved/authorized the updated formulation of Kostaive, targeting the variant JN.1 for active immunization to prevent COVID-19 in adults aged 18 years and above in September 2024. A regulatory filing for Kostaive to treat the same indication is also currently under review in the EU.
ARCT remains on track to commercially launch Kostaive in Japan later in the fourth quarter of 2024. We expect management to provide a thorough update on the same on the third-quarter earnings call.
Shares of Arcturus have plunged 42.9% so far this year compared with the industry’s decrease of 3.7%.
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The company is developing its pipeline candidate, ARCT-810, in a phase II study for the treatment of ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) deficiency. ARCT has started patient screening in the mid-stage study on ARCT-810 for OTC deficiency patients in the United States. Investors will be keen to get more updates on the upcoming earnings call.
The FDA cleared ARCT’s investigational new drug (IND) application for its product candidate, ARCT-032, being developed for the treatment of cystic fibrosis (CF) this September.
The IND clearance allows the initiation of a phase II study on ARCT-032 in CF and updates on the same are expected on the upcoming earnings call.
Operating expenses are likely to have increased in the third quarter.
ARCT's Earnings Surprise History
Arcturus has an excellent earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 56.73%. In the last reported quarter, ARCT’s earnings beat estimates by 65.41%.
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. Quote
Earnings Whispers for ARCT Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Arcturus this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Arcturus has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are both pegged at a loss of 70 cents per share.
Zacks Rank: Arcturus currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some stocks worth considering from the healthcare space, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
CRISPR Therapeutics AG CRSP has an Earnings ESP of +100.00% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
Shares of CRISPR Therapeutics have lost 18.9% in the year-to-date period. Earnings of CRSP beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same once, delivering an average surprise of 101.83%.
Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. ACAD has an Earnings ESP of +38.39% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Shares of Acadia have plunged 52.9% in the year-to-date period. Earnings of ACAD beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same once, delivering an average surprise of 42.37%. ACAD will report third-quarter results on Nov 6.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX has an Earnings ESP of +0.24% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Shares of Vertex have gained 15.8% in the year-to-date period. Earnings of VRTX beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same once, delivering an average surprise of 2.76%. VRTX will report third-quarter results on Nov. 4.
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