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Shareholders might have noticed that Arcosa, Inc. (NYSE:ACA) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.8% to US$83.88 in the past week. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$2.6b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 25% to hit US$1.91 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Arcosa after the latest results.
See our latest analysis for Arcosa
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Arcosa's four analysts is for revenues of US$2.93b in 2025. This would reflect a meaningful 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 114% to US$4.11. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.94b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.30 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$118, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Arcosa at US$145 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$106. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Arcosa's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Arcosa's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.9% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.7% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Arcosa to grow faster than the wider industry.