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A week ago, AptarGroup, Inc. (NYSE:ATR) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. AptarGroup beat earnings, with revenues hitting US$759m, ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share outperforming analyst reckonings by a solid 12%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on AptarGroup after the latest results.
View our latest analysis for AptarGroup
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from AptarGroup's ten analysts is for revenues of US$3.06b in 2021, which would reflect a credible 7.4% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 26% to US$4.12. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.03b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.03 in 2021. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$125, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic AptarGroup analyst has a price target of US$135 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$96.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await AptarGroup shareholders.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting AptarGroup's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 7.4% growth ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.4% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that AptarGroup is expected to grow much faster than its industry.