The headline durable goods orders number may have climbed 3.4% in April, but that’s where the good news from today’s report from the U.S. Census Bureau ends.

The headline increase was largely due to an 8.9% increase in transportation orders, which can be volatile due to high-priced aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose by just 0.4%. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, which is a proxy for business investment, unexpectedly fell 0.8% during the month. This was the third consecutive monthly decline in the measure — which is also referred to as core capex — which may be a sign of trouble for American manufacturers.

"Business investment remains pathetic,” said Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro.

While much of the slowdown does seem limited to the oil and gas industry — the all-time high orders hit in September 2014 when crude oil was at $100 per barrel — there isn’t much in today’s report that inspires confidence about the economy. This could have implications for the Federal Reserve as it considers the path of monetary policy.

“The nervous Nellies at the Fed are not going to like the new low for core durable goods orders this year,” said Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi’s Chris Rupkey. “The consumer seems to be spending freely, but business investment in the economy's future is not so hot right now. The economy is not firing on all cylinders if business investment spending in capital equipment is so weak.”

Rupkey isn’t alone in his cautious assessment of the report.

“We continue to expect this segment of the US economy to remain a source of drag on economic activity this quarter,” said TD Securities’ Millan Mulraine.

The chart below from Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Ian Shepherdson shows how the downward trend in core capex orders has continued.

On the bright side, Shepherdson observes that the rate of decline has slowed. He expects the numbers to bottom out this summer as the rollover in oil sector spending finally ends

Rupkey also offered some optimism, arguing that there is little evidence to suggest that this weakness will turn into an economic recession.

“The bond market can hope for recession and Fed easing all they want, but you can't have a recession without jobs losses, and 268K unemployment claims are not a sign of slack labor markets let alone one that is in retreat,” Rupkey said.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will be speaking on the economy on Friday and June 6, which may offer additional insight into her view on the most recent economic data.