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Apple AAPL and HP HPQ are well-known personal computer (PC) makers in a market that is expected to see year-over-year shipment growth of 2.1% in 2025, per IDC. Global PC shipment is expected to witness a CAGR of 0.4% between 2025 and 2029 to hit 422.6 million in 2029. Commercial shipment is expected to grow 4.3% year over year to 138 million and witness a CAGR of 0.8% between 2025 and 2029 to hit 142.6 million.
Meanwhile, U.S. shipment growth is expected to be 1.7% to hit 70.4 million in 2025, per Canalys. For 2026, the shipment is expected to grow 1.9% to 71.7 million. Commercial is expected to 6.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, while consumer is expected to remain flat year over year in 2025 and increase 1.1% in 2026.
The growing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) powered PCs and Microsoft Windows 10 end-of-service in October 2025 are key catalysts. Gartner expects AI PCs (PC with an embedded neural processing unit) global shipments to hit 114 million units in 2025, a jump of 165.5% from 2024.
So, Apple or HP, which is a better buy under the current scenario?
The Case for Apple Stock
Apple’s Mac business is benefiting from strong demand for M4, M4 Pro, and M4 Max chips. In March, Apple expanded its Mac portfolio with the new MacBook Air powered by the M4 chip with up to 18 hours of battery life and a new 12MP Center Stage camera. Apple also announced the new Mac Studio featuring M4 Max and the new M3 Ultra chip. The new chip is the most powerful created by Apple and features double Neural Engine cores, Thunderbolt 5 with more than 2 times the bandwidth per port for faster connectivity and robust expansion.
Apple’s strong Mac portfolio helped it gain market share in the first quarter of 2025. Per IDC, Apple had a market share of 8.7%, up 70 basis points (bps) on a year-over-year basis. Shipment grew 14.1% year over year to hit 5.5 million. According to Gartner, Mac shares inched up 20 bps while shipments increased 7% year over year.
The availability of Apple Intelligence globally with macOS Sequoia 15.4 updates in new languages, including French, German, Italian, Portuguese (Brazil), Spanish, Japanese, Korean, and Chinese (simplified), as well as localized English for Singapore and India, bodes well for Mac’s prospects.
The Case for HP Stock
Growing interest in Generative AI-enabled PCs might give a fresh boost to HP’s PC sales. The company had earlier suggested that AI PCs could be a key growth driver beginning this year. It forecasted that 40-60% of all PCs will be AI PCs in the next three years. To make the most of the growing opportunities in this category, HP has launched several AI PCs this year and plans to continue to expand its AI PC portfolio.
However, HP faces meaningful downside risk if the U.S.-China tariff war escalates. The company relies heavily on China for manufacturing and assembling many of its PCs, printers, and related components. Higher import tariffs on Chinese-made goods would raise HP’s production costs, forcing the company to either absorb the margin pressure or pass on costs to consumers, both negative outcomes.
Per IDC, HPQ had a market share of 20.2%, up 20 bps on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter of calendar 2025. Shipment grew 6.1% year over year to hit 12.8 million.