'Time is right' for coordinated response to Asian currency woes: Nomura

  • The Chiang Mai Initiative was created after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. It's designed to give the "ASEAN Plus 3" nations an alternative source of foreign currency in case of liquidity problems.

  • With their high levels of external debt, countries such as Indonesia, India and the Philippines are the most likely candidates to tap liquidity from either bilateral currency swap agreements or through the CMI.

Southeast Asian countries that are burning through their foreign exchange reserves can turn to a regional safety net — known as the Chiang Mai Initiative — if their positions deteriorate, analysts said last week.

The CMI was created after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. It's designed to give the "ASEAN Plus 3" bloc — comprising 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus China, Japan and South Korea — an alternative source of foreign currency in case of liquidity problems.

Under the agreement, signatory countries can withdraw an agreed amount of funds from a $240 billion liquidity pool to help bolster their foreign reserves through currency swap agreements with Japan , China and South Korea .

With their high levels of external debt, countries such as Indonesia , India and the Philippines are the most likely candidates to tap liquidity from either bilateral currency swap agreements or through the CMI.

But doing so could fuel market suspicions that deeper problems lie beneath the surface. Such a "stigma problem," as Japanese bank Nomura described in a recent report, necessitates a "collective, coordinated" approach.

"Despite having been established several years ago, these financing arrangements have not yet been tapped or activated when external shocks occurred, such as the 2013 taper tantrum ," Nomura strategists led by Rob Subbaraman wrote in a report published on Sept. 14.

The 2013 taper tantrum occurred after the U.S. Federal Reserve first signaled to the markets that the central bank's massive liquidity program was coming to an end, which resulted in a massive sell-off in both stocks and bonds.

"In our view, one major reason is the stigma attached to seeking external help during periods of stress and the domestic political ramifications, not to mention the risk that markets may take such a request as a sign that 'things must be really bad'," the analysts noted.

'Collective, coordinated response'

To limit any market fallout, "a well-coordinated, publicly announced approach would likely be better received if some sort of official joint statements were made in a regional forum, complimented by respective countries making their own announcements to their constituents," the Nomura report said.