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As you might know, Aon plc (NYSE:AON) recently reported its yearly numbers. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$16b and statutory earnings per share of US$12.49. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for Aon
After the latest results, the 16 analysts covering Aon are now predicting revenues of US$17.4b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a notable 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 12% to US$13.73. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$17.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$14.27 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
The consensus price target held steady at US$390, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Aon analyst has a price target of US$445 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$313. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Aon's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.4% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.4% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Aon to grow faster than the wider industry.