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Shareholders might have noticed that ANZ Group Holdings Limited (ASX:ANZ) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.8% to AU$24.76 in the past week. Revenues came in 4.0% below expectations, at AU$20b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of AU$2.27 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
See our latest analysis for ANZ Group Holdings
Following last week's earnings report, ANZ Group Holdings' 13 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be AU$20.6b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to descend 11% to AU$2.10 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$21.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$2.17 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the AU$25.58 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on ANZ Group Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$31.00 and the most bearish at AU$21.50 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that ANZ Group Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 2.6% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 2.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that ANZ Group Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.