Antony Blinken's China trip seen as positive but could put some US allies in 'precarious position'
South China Morning Post
5 min read
The US secretary of state's trip to Beijing this week may have gone some way towards reassuring China's neighbours over their rivalry, but observers say long-term concerns remain.
Beijing and Washington agreed during Antony Blinken's two-day visit to hold more high-level talks - the latest effort to halt a downward spiral in relations that has left many nations in a tough position over which side they support. Such exchanges had been largely frozen after the US shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon in February.
Yan Xuetong, dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University, said the talks would be welcomed by the region.
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"The greatest worry for neighbouring countries is a war between China and the US," he said. "As long as there's no outbreak of war between them, and their contradictions and even competition are handled in a peaceful way, these countries will feel that they can cope."
China and the US both wanted to appear willing to listen to the concerns of other countries rather than continue being confrontational, according to Chen Xiangmiao, an assistant research fellow at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in Hainan.
"Both sides want to ease the anxiety of countries in Asia and even in Europe, as the intensifying competition between China and the US has emerged as a thorny challenge in their own bilateral ties with many countries," Chen said.
"The trip also sent a signal to the world that there is no zero-sum game between China and the US, and that they're taking responsibility for regional peace and stability."
James Downes, head of politics and public administration at Hong Kong Metropolitan University, noted that Blinken and senior Chinese diplomats had met for longer than scheduled.
"From a PR perspective, the recent talks look positive," he said. "Renewed positive ties between China and the United States are important for the European Union within the current global economic climate, as the EU seeks to continue its post-Covid economic recovery."
But the talks would not ease the concerns of some EU countries over issues like Beijing's foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific region. "Politically, the EU appears to be aligning more closely with the US in response to China's growing geopolitical assertiveness," Downes said.
While Beijing and Washington have pledged to keep their rivalry from turning into an actual conflict, a possible confrontation could be dangerous for countries like Japan - a US ally that sees China as a top security threat, according to James Brown, an international relations professor at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.
Ties between Beijing and Tokyo are strained over their wartime history and territorial disputes, but the neighbours have close links and China is Japan's most important trading partner.
"For this reason, excessive hawkishness from Washington and talk of decoupling is not welcomed in Tokyo. The last thing Japanese policymakers want is a regional crisis," Brown said.
"In this context, Japan will welcome Blinken's trip to Beijing. It takes some of the heat out of the relationship and maintains channels of communication, which may be vital to avoiding a future crisis."
During the talks, China and the US agreed to find common ground on issues such as the fight against fentanyl trafficking and increasing direct flights between the two countries.
But there were no breakthroughs on contentious issues like Washington's support for Taiwan - the self-ruled island Beijing claims as its own - and technology export restrictions against China, human rights or the restoration of military communication channels. Those channels have been suspended since then-US House speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August last year.
Li Mingjiang, an associate professor with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the Blinken trip could lead to "a bit of stability" in US-China relations and "limited cooperation" on areas such as climate change, food security and public health.
That would be positive news for Southeast Asia - home to nearly 700 million people in countries that have close trading ties with China and deep security relations with the US.
"However, leaders in these regional states will also understand that US-China relations are still very fragile and they will continue to face pressure to take sides," Li said.
But for some US allies in the region that are vulnerable to a potential Chinese backlash in economic, military or diplomatic areas, Blinken's China trip could leave them in "a precarious position", according to Lee Seong-hyon, a senior fellow with the Houston, Texas-based George H.W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations.
Lee noted that under President Joe Biden, the US had taken on an alliance-centred strategy to counter China.
"It appears as though Washington persuaded and even pressured its hesitant allies into confronting China on the front line," Lee said.
"However, when their allies eventually consented to partake in the anti-China campaign, Washington abruptly extended an olive branch to China, leaving them in a precarious position."
Washington's allies could be disappointed if it appears to be "needy and not approaching China from a position of strength, and even potentially retreating from its competition with China", Lee added.
"Ironically, therefore, Blinken's peace-offering mission to China may have inadvertently fuelled an increased sense of uncertainty in US-China relations, amplifying the impulse to hedge between them instead of definitively siding with Washington."
Additional reporting by Orange Wang and Hayley Wong
