Bitcoin is down over 3% to around $102,100 as new inflation data released Thursday morning caught markets off guard — with some key readings pointing to unexpected weakness in wholesale prices and consumer demand.
The broader crypto market is also flashing red, with Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano posting similar losses as investors digest the implications for interest rate policy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) — a key measure of inflation at the wholesale level — fell 0.5% in April, despite expectations for a 0.2% rise. Core PPI, which strips out food and energy, also declined 0.4%, against a forecast for a 0.3% increase. It was the largest drop in services prices since the government began tracking them in 2009, with a 1.6% slide in trade services and a 6.1% drop in margins for machine and vehicle wholesalers driving the downturn.
Typically, weaker inflation could increase the odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are generally bullish for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, the broader context complicates that narrative, weak retail sales data and falling “control group” spending indicate sluggish consumer demand, raising fears of a potential slowdown in economic activity.
This comes as April’s CPI rose just 0.2% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year, slightly below the 2.4% forecast. The softer inflation print has renewed market hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2025.
Crypto assets react to mixed signals
For crypto, which often trades like a tech asset, this combination of lower inflation and softer consumer strength creates mixed signals. On one hand, reduced inflation supports the idea of easier monetary policy — potentially a tailwind for Bitcoin and altcoins. On the other, slower retail and business activity can spook investors out of speculative assets.
Year-over-year, headline PPI rose 2.4% — slightly below the 2.5% estimate — while core PPI came in at 3.1%, matching expectations. The data points to cooling price pressures in the supply chain, which may give the Federal Reserve more room to pause or cut interest rates later this year.
At the same time, retail sales showed minimal growth, rising just 0.1% month-over-month in April, in line with expectations but sharply lower than the 1.7% gain in March. The so-called "control group" — which feeds into GDP calculations — actually fell 0.2%, missing forecasts for a 0.3% rise. Consumers appear to be pulling back slightly, possibly in response to the rising cost of living and fears over potential inflationary shocks from renewed tariffs under President Donald Trump’s economic proposals.
Crypto stocks feel the sting
The crypto and blockchain-related equity markets are feeling the sting.
Coinbase is down 2.4% in premarket trading, MicroStrategy off 1.1%, and Robinhood down 1.6%. Miners like Marathon Digital (MARA) and HIVE Digital also dropped nearly 2%.