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Investors in Haleon plc (LON:HLN) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.3% to close at UK£3.68 following the release of its interim results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of UK£5.7b and statutory earnings per share of UK£0.033 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Haleon is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
View our latest analysis for Haleon
Following last week's earnings report, Haleon's 16 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be UK£11.4b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 31% to UK£0.16. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of UK£11.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.16 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at UK£3.75. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Haleon analyst has a price target of UK£4.10 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£3.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Haleon is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Haleon's past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that Haleon's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 2.2% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 1.3% a year over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.3% per year. Although Haleon's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.