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As you might know, Pool Corporation (NASDAQ:POOL) last week released its latest first-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 2.5% short of analyst estimates at US$1.1b, and statutory earnings of US$1.42 per share missed forecasts by 4.1%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Pool after the latest results.
Following last week's earnings report, Pool's twelve analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$5.33b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 4.0% to US$11.22. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$5.36b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.31 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
View our latest analysis for Pool
The consensus price target fell 6.4% to US$328, suggesting that the analysts might have been a bit enthusiastic in their previous valuation - or they were expecting the company to provide stronger guidance in the quarterly results. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Pool at US$375 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$280. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Pool is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Pool's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.6% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Pool is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.