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Heartland Express, Inc. (NASDAQ:HTLD) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$219m missing analyst predictions by 8.9%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.18 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from four analysts covering Heartland Express is for revenues of US$925.1m in 2025. This implies a measurable 7.2% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 27% to US$0.26. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$905.0m and losses of US$0.027 per share in 2025. While this year's revenue estimates increased, there was also a sizeable expansion in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
View our latest analysis for Heartland Express
Spiting the revenue upgrading, the average price target fell 10% to US$9.63, clearly signalling that higher forecast losses are a valuation concern. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Heartland Express at US$12.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$8.50. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 9.5% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 16% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.5% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Heartland Express is expected to lag the wider industry.