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The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Ardelyx, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARDX), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$74m missing analyst predictions by 6.7%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.17 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
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After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Ardelyx are now predicting revenues of US$369.5m in 2025. If met, this would reflect an okay 2.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$0.26 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$375.3m and losses of US$0.21 per share in 2025. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a sizeable expansion in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
View our latest analysis for Ardelyx
The consensus price target fell 6.5% to US$10.05per share, with the analysts clearly concerned by ballooning losses. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Ardelyx, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$15.00 and the most bearish at US$5.50 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Ardelyx's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 71% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 17% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Ardelyx is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.