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Amprius Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:AMPX) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.5% to US$1.06 in the week after its latest second-quarter results. Revenues came in 32% better than analyst models expected, at US$3.3m, although statutory losses ballooned 23% to US$0.13, which is much worse than what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Amprius Technologies
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Amprius Technologies from seven analysts is for revenues of US$14.2m in 2024. If met, it would imply a solid 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.50 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$13.4m and US$0.42 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates increased, there was also a notable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
It will come as no surprise that expanding losses caused the consensus price target to fall 27% to US$7.17with the analysts implicitly ranking ongoing losses as a greater concern than growing revenues. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Amprius Technologies, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$14.00 and the most bearish at US$4.00 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Amprius Technologies' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 31% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 217% growth over the last year. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Amprius Technologies' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.