Which Upstream Company Is a Good Bet amid Low Energy Prices?
Analyst recommendations
In this part, we’ll look at Wall Street analysts’ targets for Whiting Petroleum (WLL), Oasis Petroleum (OAS), PDC Energy (PDCE), and Concho Resources (CXO). Barring OAS, analysts expect all of the companies under review to give positive returns over the next 12 months.
PDC Energy
PDCE has the most “buy” recommendations, with 83.3% of analysts surveyed rating it as a “buy” and 16.7% rating it as a “hold.”
Several factors have boosted the market’s optimism for PDCE despite lower energy prices. These factors include PDCE’s rising production, lower cost structure, hedges, and strong financial position. The stock’s consensus 12-month target price of $66 implies positive returns of 15% over the next 12 months.
Concho Resources
CXO is also popular among analysts, with 77.8% rating it as a “buy” and 22.2% rating it as a “hold.” This is likely due to its lower debt levels and the relatively small drop in its 2015 EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) compared to those of its peers. Its consensus 12-month target price of $113.4 implies positive returns of 8% over the next 12 months.
Whiting Petroleum and Oasis Petroleum
WLL and OAS have the lowest number of “buy” recommendations at 50% and 34.2%, respectively. 45% of analysts recommend “holds” for WLL, 65.8% recommend “holds” for OAS, and 5% have “sell” recommendations for WLL.
OAS’s consensus 12-month target price of $7.85 implies a return of 1.5% in the next 12 months. WLL’s 12-month consensus target of $10.62 implies a return of 34%—the largest in the group under review in this series.
Thus, WLL and PDCE are expected to deliver the highest returns in the next 12 months. All these companies combined make up 4.5% of the iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (IEO).
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