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There's been a major selloff in P3 Health Partners Inc. (NASDAQ:PIII) shares in the week since it released its third-quarter report, with the stock down 44% to US$0.21. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$362m, statutory losses exploded to US$0.29 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
View our latest analysis for P3 Health Partners
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for P3 Health Partners from four analysts is for revenues of US$1.61b in 2025. If met, it would imply a meaningful 8.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 51% to US$0.31. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.75b and losses of US$0.21 per share in 2025. While next year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a massive increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
The average price target fell 65% to US$0.95, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for P3 Health Partners' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values P3 Health Partners at US$1.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$0.90. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that P3 Health Partners is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that P3 Health Partners' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 7.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 31% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while P3 Health Partners' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.