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Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (NYSE:AMR) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$532m missing analyst predictions by 7.2%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$2.60 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from dual analysts covering Alpha Metallurgical Resources is for revenues of US$2.25b in 2025. This implies a chunky 14% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -US$5.36 per share in 2025. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.59b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.23 in 2025. There looks to have been a major change in sentiment regarding Alpha Metallurgical Resources' prospects following the latest results, with a real cut to revenues and the analysts now forecasting a loss instead of a profit.
Check out our latest analysis for Alpha Metallurgical Resources
The average price target fell 33% to US$183, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Alpha Metallurgical Resources' valuation.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Alpha Metallurgical Resources' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 19% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 16% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.3% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Alpha Metallurgical Resources is expected to lag the wider industry.