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Celebrations may be in order for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:ACAD) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a significant upgrade to their statutory estimates for the company. Consensus estimates suggest investors could expect greatly increased statutory revenues and earnings per share, with the analysts modelling a real improvement in business performance. Investors have been pretty optimistic on ACADIA Pharmaceuticals too, with the stock up 32% to US$32.18 over the past week. It will be interesting to see if today's upgrade is enough to propel the stock even higher.
Following the upgrade, the latest consensus from ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' 18 analysts is for revenues of US$639m in 2023, which would reflect a sizeable 23% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 67% to US$0.29. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$557m and losses of US$0.50 per share in 2023. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.
See our latest analysis for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals
The consensus price target rose 21% to US$29.69, with the analysts encouraged by the higher revenue and lower forecast losses for this year. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$39.00 and the most bearish at US$12.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 32% annualised growth to the end of 2023 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 21% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 16% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is expected to grow much faster than its industry.