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The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Core Lithium Ltd (ASX:CXO), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon. At AU$0.093, shares are up 4.5% in the past 7 days. It will be interesting to see if this downgrade motivates investors to start selling their holdings.
After the downgrade, the consensus from Core Lithium's four analysts is for revenues of AU$2.5m in 2025, which would reflect a stressful 99% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 83% to AU$0.016. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of AU$5.7m and losses of AU$0.012 per share in 2025. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.
Check out our latest analysis for Core Lithium
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 99% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 91% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.8% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Core Lithium's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at Core Lithium. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Core Lithium's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Given the serious cut to this year's outlook, it's clear that analysts have turned more bearish on Core Lithium, and we wouldn't blame shareholders for feeling a little more cautious themselves.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Core Lithium analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.