In This Article:
One thing we could say about the analysts on Fortuna Mining Corp. (TSE:FVI) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.
Our free stock report includes 1 warning sign investors should be aware of before investing in Fortuna Mining. Read for free now.
After the downgrade, the consensus from Fortuna Mining's three analysts is for revenues of US$914m in 2025, which would reflect a painful 21% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Before the latest update, the analysts were foreseeing US$1.0b of revenue in 2025. It looks like forecasts have become a fair bit less optimistic on Fortuna Mining, given the measurable cut to revenue estimates.
View our latest analysis for Fortuna Mining
We'd point out that there was no major changes to their price target of US$6.55, suggesting the latest estimates were not enough to shift their view on the value of the business. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Fortuna Mining analyst has a price target of US$7.24 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$5.04. This shows there is still some diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 26% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 27% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 14% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Fortuna Mining is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The clear low-light was that analysts slashing their revenue forecasts for Fortuna Mining this year. They're also anticipating slower revenue growth than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Fortuna Mining after today.