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Market forces rained on the parade of AnaptysBio, Inc. (NASDAQ:ANAB) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic. Surprisingly the share price has been buoyant, rising 14% to US$23.15 in the past 7 days. It will be interesting to see if the downgrade has an impact on buying demand for the company's shares.
After the downgrade, the consensus from AnaptysBio's six analysts is for revenues of US$11m in 2022, which would reflect a stressful 55% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$4.44 per share. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$18m and losses of US$4.44 per share in 2022. So there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a substantial haircut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time holding losses per share steady.
View our latest analysis for AnaptysBio
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 80% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2022. That is a notable change from historical growth of 49% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 15% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that AnaptysBio's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on AnaptysBio after today.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple AnaptysBio analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
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