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Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (NYSE:BKD) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$814m, statutory losses exploded to US$0.28 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Brookdale Senior Living's four analysts is for revenues of US$3.21b in 2025. This reflects a satisfactory 6.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 43% to US$0.68. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.22b and losses of US$0.56 per share in 2025. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Brookdale Senior Living even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a considerable increase to per-share losses.
Check out our latest analysis for Brookdale Senior Living
The consensus price target held steady at US$7.70, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Brookdale Senior Living at US$9.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$6.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Brookdale Senior Living's past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that Brookdale Senior Living's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 8.5% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.9% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 7.0% annually. So it looks like Brookdale Senior Living is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.