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By Alex Lawler
LONDON (Reuters) - Russia's invasion of Ukraine has reconfigured the global oil market, with African suppliers stepping in to meet European demand and Moscow, stung by Western sanctions, increasingly tapping risky ship-to-ship transfers to get its crude to Asia.
The reroutings mark the biggest supply-side shakeup of the global oil trade since the U.S. shale revolution altered the shape of the market around a decade ago and suggest Russia will be able to navigate a European Union (EU) oil ban, provided Asia and China continue to buy its crude.
Sanctions imposed on Moscow after the conflict in Ukraine kicked off in February, including a U.S. ban on its oil imports, have prompted Russia to pivot away from Europe, where its crude is shunned, to customers in India and China who are picking up cargoes at a steep discount, according to industry data and traders.
Russian exports were back to pre-invasion levels in April, according to data from the Paris-based International Energy Agency and oil prices have stabilised around $110 after hitting a 14-year high above $139 a barrel in March.
Even if the EU agrees to an oil ban in its next round of Russian sanctions, analysts said the impact could be tempered by demand from Asia.
"Unless the West puts diplomatic pressure on Asian buyers, we do not see the supply gap widening and oil prices spiking," said Norbert Rücker of Julius Baer.
A complex patchwork of U.S., EU and British sanctions have prohibited Russian-owned or flagged ships from calling at ports meaning that some of the increased trade to Asia is being facilitated via ship-to-ship transfer at sea -- a costly process where the risk of spills is greater.
Overall, the flow of Russian oil to Asia via the sea has jumped at least 50% since the start of the year, according to tanker-tracker Petro-Logistics and other data.
Transfers between vessels, which account for a small fraction of the overall sea trade, have shifted away from the Danish coast to the Mediterranean Sea to avoid sanctions and protests.
"Ship-to-ship (STS) transfers were common in Danish waters, at the entry point of the Baltic Sea," Petro-Logistics President Mark Gerber told Reuters. "Those are not happening anymore; hence the STS trend of sanctioned tanker to non-sanctioned tanker increasing in the warmer and friendlier Mediterranean waters."
Gerber put the volumes of Russian crude and products being transferred between tankers in the Mediterranean at about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), of which the majority is going to Asia, adding to the 2.3 million bpd going directly.